Why Money Management Matters More Than Strategy
Many traders believe losing trades happen because of a bad entry strategy. The truth is, most traders fail due to poor money management and uncontrolled emotions.
The Game of Probability is a money management concept that helps traders:
- Break down their capital into smaller parts (“bullets”).
- Reduce emotional stress by limiting risk per trade.
- Profit even with a low win rate — as long as Risk:Reward (RR) is 1:3.
👉 In short: Even if you lose 70% of your trades, you can still come out profitable.
The Coin Toss Analogy: Why You Won’t Lose Every Time
Imagine flipping a coin 10 times.
- Probability: 50% heads, 50% tails.
- Is it possible to land tails all 10 times? Almost impossible.
- Realistically: You’ll get a mix of heads and tails.
👉 Forex works the same way. Using basic strategies like Support & Resistance (SNR), not every trade will lose. Some will “hit” because the market always reacts to supply and demand.
Step 1: Split Your Capital Into 10 Bullets
Example capital: USD 1,000
- 10% (USD 100) = 1 bullet → used for trading.
- 90% (USD 900) = stored in another account → untouched.
This way, your real emotional risk is only USD 100, not the entire USD 1,000.
Step 2: Trade With 1 Bullet Until Margin Call
Each bullet is treated as full risk.
- No need for manual Stop Loss (SL).
- If wrong, let it run until margin call.
- Focus on probabilities: not every bullet will burn out.
Step 3: Use a Risk-Reward Ratio of 1:3
Each bullet aims to win 3x its risk.
Example:
- Risk = USD 100 (1 bullet)
- Target (RR 1:3) = USD 300
If successful, 1 bullet turns into 3 new bullets.
Step 4: Probability Works in Your Favor
If you fire all 10 bullets:
- 7 bullets lose (MC) = loss of USD 700
- 3 bullets win (RR 1:3) = gain of USD 900
👉 Final outcome = +USD 200 (20% profit)
Even with a 70% losing rate, you still win because the RR ratio is on your side.
Step 5: Reset Discipline After Winning
The most important rule of this strategy is discipline.
- When 1 bullet wins → creates 3 new bullets → STOP trading immediately.
- Transfer profits to your savings account (90% saved, 10% remains for the next bullet).
- Restart with only 1 bullet.
👉 This way, your capital stays protected, emotions remain steady, and your trading account never faces full exposure.
Advantages of the Game of Probability
✅ Stable emotions – 90% of capital is always safe.
✅ Low win rate required – only 30% wins needed with RR 1:3.
✅ Simple concept – easy to understand, like a coin toss.
✅ Consistent profits – every winning bullet locks gains in savings.
Weaknesses of This Strategy
⚠️ High risk per bullet – each bullet can be fully lost.
⚠️ Strong discipline needed – must stop after a win and reset.
⚠️ Not for everyone – best for traders who understand risk and probability.
Final Thoughts
Forex trading isn’t about winning every entry — it’s about risk management. Like flipping a coin, not every result will be tails; heads will eventually appear.
With the Game of Probability strategy, you can:
- Split your capital into 10 bullets.
- Risk 1 bullet = 10% of your total.
- Target 1:3 RR per trade.
- Stay profitable even if you lose 70% of your trades.
- Lock profits after every win and restart small.
👉 To apply this strategy effectively, you’ll need a broker that offers:
- High leverage (up to 1:3000)
- Low spreads
- Access to multiple instruments (forex, gold, silver, oil, indices, crypto)
✅ EMAR Markets provides all of these, with full Multi-language support — making it the ideal choice for traders who want to master disciplined money management. Apply disciplined money management with EMAR’s trading tools.
Game of Probability FAQ
Is the Game of Probability strategy safe?
It’s safer than risking full capital at once, since 90% of your money stays protected. But each bullet can still be lost if trades go wrong.
What if all 10 bullets lose?
It’s statistically very rare, similar to flipping 10 tails in a row. But if it happens, you lose your allocated risk capital. That’s why strict discipline is key.
Do I need Stop Loss when using this method?
No. Each bullet acts as its own Stop Loss because it’s treated as full risk capital. Once it’s gone, you move to the next bullet.
What is the minimum capital needed for this system?
You can start with as low as USD 100 (10 bullets of USD 10 each). The higher the capital, the more flexibility and breathing space you’ll have.
Can beginners use the Game of Probability?
Yes, but beginners must understand the basics of Forex, leverage, and risk management first. Otherwise, emotional decisions can still ruin the system.
Which broker works best with this strategy?
A broker with high leverage, low spreads, and reliable execution is ideal. Example: EMAR Markets.
